2011 Oscar Preview
by Adam Chitwood Posted:November 26th, 2010
The holiday season is officially upon us. While that means copious amounts of cholesterol and decidedly awkward confrontations with family members, it also makes for a few days of fairly slow news. So with that, what better time than now to start seriously thinking about the Oscars? Awards season is in full swing, and the majority of the “Oscar-bait” films have been seen, so we can now begin to put together some lists that actually make sense. After scouring the field, we’ve broken down all the major categories and compiled what we see to be the frontrunners, likely nominations, and outside contenders in each race.
Before we begin, a quick reminder. This is still quite early in the Oscar season. While it’s true that most of the films have been seen and it’s decidedly easier to predict nominees at this time, choosing the winner is a bit tougher. A lot could change between now and February, or things could stay pretty much the same. We just don’t know. But this is how the races seem to be stacking up at the moment. So what are you waiting for? Hit the jump and let the guessing game begin.
Best PictureFrontrunners:The King’s SpeechThe Social Network127 HoursLikely to be nominated:Black SwanInceptionToy Story 3The Kids are All RightTrue GritThe FighterOutside contenders:Blue ValentineThe TownWinter’s BoneNever Let Me GoShutter IslandThe Best Picture race has been a dogfight between
The King’s Speech and
The Social Network for the past couple of months, but since
127 Hours started screening in the last few weeks, the flick has been moving up the list fast.
The King’s Speech is the typical Oscar-bait juggernaut: it’s a period piece, it involves a disabled person overcoming obstacles, and it’s set in England; not to mention, it’s one hell of a film.
The Social Network is the film that’s had everyone talking. It invaded the zeitgeist with its generation-defining story, one of the most respected directors in the business, and quite possibly the best script Aaron Sorkin has written (which is really saying something). Before its release, early word on
127 Hours was good, but the film has gained some serious traction since it started screening a couple of weeks ago, particularly in James Franco’s powerhouse performance. Could the
Slumdog Millionaire Oscar-winning duo of Director Danny Boyle and Screenwriter Simon Beaufoy have another surprise win on their hands? At this point, it’s a little too early to tell, but if anything was going to spoil
King’s Speech or
Social Network right now, it would be
127 Hours.
Black Swan is another serious contender, but there’s fear that its intensity may be too much for some of the older voters in the Academy. But there’s no denying that the film has its passionate advocates.
Inception was refreshingly original in a summer full of duds, but it may be seen as too commercial for the big win. Disney-Pixar is aiming for the top prize with
Toy Story 3, but it’s also a bit of a long shot to win. It just doesn’t seem to have the muscle to elbow out some of the bigger films, even though it may have garnered the most emotional response out of viewers of any film this year. As for
True Grit, nobody has even seen the film yet. But if one thing can be learned from Oscar seasons past, never count out the Coen brothers. So let’s just say we’re cautiously optimistic at the moment.
Best DirectorFrontrunners:David Fincher – The Social NetworkDanny Boyle – 127 HoursLikely to be nominated:Tom Hooper – The King’s SpeechDarren Aronofsky – Black SwanChristopher Nolan – InceptionOutside contenders:Joel & Ethan Coen – True GritPeter Weir – The Way BackLisa Cholodenko – The Kids Are All RightThe Best Director race is understandably similar to the Best Picture race at the moment. Fincher’s work in
The Social Network shows masterful restraint, and Boyle managed to make a film which largely takes place in a small rock cavern visually invigorating. With
The King’s Speech being a frontrunner for Best Picture, you can expect Hooper to be at the top of the list of the Director race. Of the 82 films that have won Best Picture, 60 of them have also won Best Director, so these two categories are very closely tied together. And with the list of Best Picture nominees expanded to ten, many look to this category to determine the 5 “real” Best Picture nominees. It would be surprising if either Aronofsky or Nolan were overlooked; both of their films are obviously Director-driven, not to mention wholly original. If
True Grit lives up to the hype, expect the Coen brothers to be nominated as well. Weir could be the wild-card in this category. He’s been nominated for Best Director four times in his career, and is something of an Academy favorite. Then again, it’s also conceivable to think that someone like Cholodenko or David O. Russell could pick up the last slot.
Best Actor
Frontrunners:Colin Firth – The King’s SpeechJames Franco – 127 HoursLikely to be nominated:Jesse Eisenberg – The Social NetworkMark Wahlberg – The FighterRobert Duvall – Get LowOutside contenders:Javier Bardem – BiutifulJeff Bridges – True GritRyan Gosling – Blue ValentineLeonardo DiCaprio – InceptionYet again we come back to
King’s Speech,
Social Network, and
127 Hours. Firth was long thought to be the frontrunner by a fairly wide margin, but Franco’s performance has been getting a great deal of attention lately. Eisenberg’s a bit of a long shot; I see the nomination being his consolation this year. Bardem has some serious buzz for his performance, and could be a dark horse. Gosling could very easily garner a nomination given his pedigree and respect in the industry. Again, no one’s seen
True Grit, so he’s a bit of a question mark at this point, but it would be neat to see Bridges win two years in a row (only Tom Hanks and Spencer Tracy have accomplished this feat).
Best Actress
Frontrunners:
Natalie Portman –
Black SwanAnnette Bening –
The Kids Are All RightLikely to be nominated:Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s BoneNicole Kidman – Rabbit HoleOutside contenders:Michelle Williams – Blue ValentineTilda Swinton – I Am LoveThe Best Actress race is one of the closest right now. Both Portman and Bening have been garnering nothing but raves for their performances and it’s very much a coin toss at this point. Everyone else in this category should be happy with a nomination, because this is a two-woman race. Lawrence is an exciting newcomer and Kidman is an Academy favorite.
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners:
Christian Bale –
The FighterGeoffrey Rush –
The King’s SpeechLikely to be nominated:Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All RightSam Rockwell – ConvictionMichael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never SleepsOutside contenders:Armie Hammer – The Social NetworkAndrew Garfield – The Social NetworkEd Harris – The Way BackThis could finally be Bale’s year, after incredible performances in just about every role he takes on (I think we can safely pretend like
Terminator: Salvation never happened now, right?). His work in
The Fighter has everyone talking, and at the moment this category looks like his to lose. However, Rush could very well pull an upset. He hasn’t won since
Shine and his role in
The King’s Speech seems right up the Academy’s alley. Douglas’ cancer scare will more than likely have the Academy thinking of him, though whether he gets nominated for
Wall Street or
Solitary Man is a bit of a toss-up. Given the nostalgia for the role, and the resonance with today’s economic times,
Wall Street may be the better bet. Rockwell does some great work in
Conviction, but he most likely has a better role in him somewhere down the line that the Academy will reward him for (that guilt for snubbing him for
Moon has to catch up sometime). Hammer and Garfield turned in fine performances in
Social Network, but they may be a bit too young. However, the Supporting categories always seem to be where the out-of-left-field nominee comes from every year, so Hammer or Garfield (or even Timberlake) could still be a possibility.
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners:
Melissa Leo –
The FighterJulianne Moore –
The Kids Are All RightHelena Bonham Carter –
The King’s SpeechLikely to be nominated:Dianne Weist – Rabbit HoleJacki Weaver – Animal KingdomAmy Adams – The FighterOutside contenders:Mila Kunis – Black SwanHailee Steinfeld – True GritAlthough Moore’s performance in
The Kids are All Right is definitely a leading role, if Focus Features is smart they’ll move her to the Supporting category. They would avoid her splitting votes with Bening in Best Actress, and both women would have a far greater chance of winning in their respective categories (and deservedly so). Bonham Carter also has a decent shot, as do indie-darlings Weist and Weaver. Adams is also a safe bet; there’s no denying the girl’s talent and she’s due to win one of these someday. Again,
True Grit is a bit of a shot in the dark, but the Supporting categories
love child-newcomers in breakthrough performances.
So that’s it. This is where we stand three months out from the ceremony. As I said, a lot can change and a lot can stay the same. Expect the frontrunners to fluctuate a bit as buzz moves up and down, but it’s rare that new frontrunners come from out of the blue in the middle of December (though that’s exactly what happened with Jeff Bridges last year). Nominations for the 83
rd Academy Awards will be announced on January 25
th, and the ceremony will be held on February 27
th. Expect more coverage as the date comes closer.
So what do you think? Any we missed? Any dark-horse candidates you see as potential spoilers?
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